🤖 The Role of AI in the US-China Tech Rivalry

NP #019

Good morning and welcome to the latest edition of neonpulse!

Today, we’re zooming in on the US-China tech rivalry, because in a short amount of time, AI has become crucial in this “battle”.

The Role of AI in the US-China Tech Rivalry

The tech rivalry between the US and China and AI has given it a new boost. Chinese tech executives have admitted that the US has an edge in generative AI systems, which can quickly perform complex tasks with simple commands. To protect its advantage, the US is going to great lengths, even curbing Chinese access to powerful chips needed for training new AI models.

So, where does the competition stand? Well, the US has been leading the way in generative AI. In fact, the biggest breakthrough so far is obviously ChatGPT, which is a product from San Francisco-based OpenAI. This triggered a wave of investments from Silicon Valley, with companies like Google racing against OpenAI and Microsoft to develop advanced AI applications.

On the other hand, China has made significant progress in practical applications, like image recognition. However, their generative AI tools still have a long way to go. Nevertheless, major Chinese tech players such as Baidu, ByteDance, Tencent, and Alibaba are entering the race by introducing their own versions of ChatGPT or announcing plans to do so.

Let's look at the numbers.

  • The US is leading in AI investment, attracting a staggering $26.6 billion compared to China's $4 billion in the year leading up to mid-June. The gap is closing, especially in terms of the number of AI venture deals. China's deal count now constitutes over two-thirds of the total deals in the US, indicating a significant increase.

  • When it comes to research, China has been the top country in AI journal citations since 2010, with almost 30% of citations in AI publications in 2021, nearly double the US's share.

  • However, historically, the US has been the leader in turning ideas into real-world products, with over 4,600 newly funded AI companies from 2013 to 2022, 3.5 times more than China during the same period.

The US has implemented restrictions on chip exports to China, fearing that advanced semiconductors and AI could enhance China's military capabilities. In fact, the US Department of Defense released a report detailing China's vision of "intelligentized warfare" that heavily relies on AI and other technologies.

In response to these challenges, the US has shifted its approach from targeted sanctions to a broader effort to protect its technological superiority. There are even considerations to impose restrictions on investment in Chinese tech firms, which would have a significant impact as China has relied on American investments for its most promising startups.

Powerful chips from companies like Nvidia and AMD are essential for training large AI models, but the US restricts their export to China. Chinese tech executives argue that they can still achieve good performance by combining a large number of lower-performing chips.

History has shown that China can achieve technological success despite its relative isolation. For instance, WeChat became a social media giant in the absence of Facebook and Twitter, and Baidu became China's leading domestic online search engine after Google exited the market.

Regulation is another factor in this race. China has taken steps to regulate its AI industry, driven by its focus on controlling online content. They plan to implement security reviews for AI services before allowing them to operate. On the other hand, the US has begun moving towards regulation, but it faces challenges in enacting meaningful AI policies due to gridlock in Congress.

This race is certainly an exiting, but the question remains:

Who will win this "battle"?

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